Global and local equity and bond market
The decline in inflation in key markets has created space for major central banks to continue cutting interest rates in 2025. The exception was the BoJ, which raised interest rates. Progressive cycles of interest rates lowering favored the stock and bond markets. A temporary deterioration stock markets valuations occurred during the Donald Trump administration’s implementation of tariffs. The NBP MPC’s continued rate cuts favored the debt market and equity valuations in the domestic market, although rising government debt had an upward effect on the slope of the yield curve. The inflow of KPO funds and the decline in geopolitical risks helped PLN.
Interest rates
In 2025, almost all central banks in developed countries, with the exception of Japan, remain in the process of reducing interest rates. The motivation for the reductions was the expiring secondary inflationary effects, following the shock of 2021–2022. Consequently, on an annual basis, the Fed cut rates to 3.75%, from 4.50%; the PBC to 3.0%, from 3.10%; the ECB to 2.15%, from 3.15%; the BoE to 3.75%, from 4.75%; and the SNB to 0.0%, from 0.50%. These processes had the background of introducing tariffs by the US, an argument often used by the Fed to slow down interest rate cuts. In Europe, persistently low activity in the main eurozone countries, with a rebound in the periphery and the expectation of positive effects of fiscal stimulation in Germany, argued in favor of the reductions. In China, a gradual slowdown in GDP growth was noticeable. The exception was Japan, where the central bank raised interest rates twice, to 0.75%, from 0.25% at the beginning of the year. This was motivated by fasterthan-expected wage growth, inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.
Central banks in most developing countries were also reducing interest rates, whether in Europe, Asia or South America. The exceptions were Brazil, Bolivia, Ukraine, and Belarus, which, hit by rising inflation, raised interest rates, and Romania, Venezuela, and Vietnam, which left them at relatively high levels. In both of the latter two groups of countries, this was the result of a temporary rebound or sustained increases in inflation.
In Poland, interest rates declined rapidly, from 5.75% to 4.0%. This was caused by a declining of annual price dynamics, driven largely by declines in food prices and imports from China, disinflation of manufactured goods. Thus, rates in Poland tried to catch up with the progress the rates of Poland’s closest EU neighbors in 2024 and partly in the first half of 2025.
Bond markets
The beginning of 2025 was marked by a reduction in yields on U.S. and German Treasury securities. Driving the changes were expectations of interest rate cuts fueled by concerns about the U.S. labor market, weak macro data from the countries of the European center and stabilizing inflation rates. The turn of the first and second quarters brought a paradigm shift in German fiscal policy to a more expansionary one, as well as concerns about rising inflation in the U.S. as a result of tariffs introduced by the Trump administration. Consequently, there was a rise in government bond yields on both sides of the ocean. In the case of the German market, after a downward correction of the rally from the end of the first quarter, yields went steadily upward for the rest of the year. The changes were driven by the fiscal package, expectations of a rebound in demand and the ECB’s slowing of rate cuts. In the case of U.S. bonds, after the shock of the tariffs, yields slowly moved downward in response to the Fed’s continued rate cuts.
As a result, on an annual basis, the U.S. Treasury bond yield curve lowered to 3.47% from 4.25% for 2Y, to 3.73% from 4.38% for 5Y, and to 4.18% from 4.58% for 10Y. German bonds, meanwhile, increased to 2.10%, from 2.08% for 2Y, to 2.45%, from 2.15% for 5Y and to 2.85%, from 2.36% for 10Y.
The start of 2025 for the dollar-denominated JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bonds ETF index was relatively stable. As with U.S. bonds, the value of the index fell in response to the announcement of tariffs by the U.S. administration, which investors believed could negatively affect the debt market. Beginning in April, almost until the end of 2025, the value of the index rose almost steadily in the wake of falling yields on U.S. Treasury securities benefiting from rate cuts by the Fed.
Yields on domestic government bonds began 2025 at relatively high levels. The end of Q1 lowered yields, which accelerated after surprises of low inflation and announcements of rate cuts by the MPC. Q2 saw a correction following the underlying markets. Beginning in late June and early July, yields fell almost steadily, helped by low inflation and successive rate cuts by the MPC.
Consequently, government bonds’ yields closed at the end of 2025 with 3.82%, up from 5.17% at the end of 2024 for 2Y, at 4.57%, up from 5.65% for 5Y, and at 5.17%, up from 5.90% for 10Y.
Stock markets
In 2025, the core equity markets rose in anticipation of interest rate cuts. A clear pause occurred at the end of Q1 and beginning of the Q2, when stock indexes reacted negatively, temporarily, to the announcement of U.S. tariffs. Finally, on a y/y basis, the DAX index rose 27%, the TOPIX by 22.4%, and the S&P by 16.4%. The relatively largest increase in the DAX was a consequence of expectations of a positive impact from Germany’s shift to a decidedly expansionary fiscal policy, while the relatively small S&P was a consequence of concerns about the under-priced impact on inflation of increased tariffs in the U.S. Representing global equity markets, the iShares MSCI Acwi ETF rose by 20.4% for the year.
Representing emerging markets, the dollardenominated iShares MSCI EM UCITS ETF index grew in line with the core markets in 2025. There was some collapse in growth at the end of Q1 and beginning of Q2, following the stock market indices of developed economies in reaction to plans to introduce tariffs in the U.S. In the end, it recorded a year-on-year appreciation of 32.3%.
This good picture was spoiled by some Southeast Asian countries, such as Bangladesh and the Philippines, and Argentina, plagued by political instability, the impact of U.S. tariffs, and fears of bankruptcy. Declines also hit Turkey, where the stock market was hurt by high inflation and political uncertainty. South Korea stood out positively, with the KOSPI index rising by 79.8%.
The WIG and WIG20 indices appreciated in 2025 following the expectations of better macro performance and a rebound in the major eurozone economies. The disruption in the growth of the indices occurred at the end of Q1 and beginning of Q2 following reductions in the underlying markets, triggered by concerns about the introduction of tariffs by the U.S. authorities. A second pause in the increases occurred in late August and early September in response to the announcement of bank taxation, concerns about the introduction of energy tariffs that could negatively affect the valuations of companies in the energy sector, disappointing results from some companies and deteriorating global sentiment.
Foreign exchange markets
By 2025, the EUR/USD exchange rate rose to 1.1750, from 1.0389, thus reacting to expectations of a slowdown in the U.S. vs. rising expectations of economic improvement in the major eurozone countries. Neither the high rate differential between the Fed and the ECB, nor the slower pace of rate cuts by the former, hindered the depreciation. Geopolitical tensions generated by the U.S. administration, only temporarily translated into dollar strengthening. The USD/JPY exchange rate moved to 156.8, from 157.37, following the normalization of rates in Japan, whose usually extremely low levels weakened the yen. USD/CNY declined to 6.9931, from 7.2993, in response to China maintaining a significant trade surplus, despite U.S. tariffs and stable Chinese consumption.
Among the most heavily losing currencies of significant emerging markets to the U.S. dollar in 2025 were the Argentine peso, which depreciated by 29.3%, following political instability and bankruptcy fears; the Turkish lira, at 17.8%, which was also weighed down by political instability and low confidence in the ability of the central bank there to bring inflation down quickly; at the bottom of the pile was the Indian rupee, at 4.8%, which was not helped by a high trade deficit.
On the other side was the Mexican peso, which gained 15.8%, on the back of relatively high rates and strong investment inflows, the South African rand +14.1%, in response to improved central bank credibility and favorable developments on the fiscal policy side, and the Brazilian real +12.9%, which gained following relatively good exports and high rates.
The currencies of Poland’s neighboring countries, similarly to PLN, gained against the euro, the Czech koruna 4.2% and the forint 7.0%, benefiting from an improving economic outlook for Europe and a decline in geopolitical risks.
In 2025, the EUR/PLN exchange rate went down to 4.2267, from 4.2730, and USD/PLN – to 3.6016, from 4.1012. The driver for the appreciation of PLN against EUR was investors’ anticipation of solid economic growth, inflows of KPO funds and speculative capital inflows, in anticipation of rate cuts. The strong rise to the USD is a derivative of the weakening of the U.S. currency against the EUR. The CHF/PLN exchange rate moved to 4.5390 from 4.5371 during this period. Stabilizing the exchange rate of the Swiss franc against the zloty was the strengthening of the latter against the euro, in the face of numerous geopolitical tensions.
Polish investment and pension fund market
Mutual funds market
As at the end of 2025, assets under management of domestic investment funds were above PLN 435.1 billion (at the highest level in history), compared to PLN 379.3 billion at the end of 2024, representing an increase by over 14.6% (+PLN +55.6 billion). For a result similar to that of the previous year. In 2024, assets rose by PLN 55.9 billion.
In 2025, debt funds strengthened their leading position, increasing assets under management to PLN 207.7 billion (+ PLN 52.9 billion, +34.1% y/y), and fund market share by 7 p.p. to 47.7%.
In terms of annual growth (percentage), ECS funds saw the largest increase in assets (+50.2% y/y), which at the end of December reached PLN 39.7 billion (data for TFIs only, excluding PTEs and TUs). Last year, most TFIs achieved growth in assets under management, counted at a double-digit rate. The net asset value of five TFIs declined over 2025.
Source: IZFiA
Employee Capital Schemes
The net asset market value of the target date funds under the Employee Capital Schemes totaled over PLN 45.16 billion at the end of 2025, compared to PLN 30.27 billion at the end of 2024, an increase of 49.19% on a yearly basis. The net asset value of ECSs managed by TFIs amounted to PLN 39.74 billion at the end of 2025.
In 2025, further contributions from employees (2-4% of gross remuneration), employers (1.5-4% of employee gross remuneration), as well as welcome (PLN 250) and annual (PLN 240) surcharges from the state, were regularly paid for the ECS.
Source: Chamber of Fund and Asset Management (IZFiA), Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF), DDF net asset value by managing institutions, data for TFIs only, excluding PTEs and TUs
The number of employees enrolled in ECSs significantly contributed to the increase in assets. As at the end of 2025, there were 1,033,973 people enrolled in TFI PZU compared to 2024 (913,242), an increase of 13.22% y/y.
Pension funds market
At the end of 2025, the net assets of open-ended pension funds amounted to more than PLN 294 billion, an increase of 38% compared to the end of 2024. The increase in the value of assets was mainly influenced by the good situation in the capital markets, which recorded significant increases in stock prices.
Source: KNF, monthly data on the OFE market, data for December 2025
Voluntary Pension Funds
Main factors affecting PZU share prices
PZU made its début on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) on 12 May 2010.
Since its flotation, it has been included in its most important index, namely WIG20 , calculated on the basis of the portfolio value of the 20 largest and most heavily traded companies on WSE’s main market. PZU also belongs to the following Polish indices: WIG, WIG30, WIG-Poland, WIGdiv, WIG20 TR, WIG.MS-FIN, CEEplus, WIG ESG (sustainable development index) and the following international indexes: MSCI Poland (emerging markets), Stoxx Europe 600 (developed markets) and FTSE Russell midcap index (developed markets).
Warsaw Stock Exchange indices
In 2025, the Polish blue chip index (WIG20) oscillated within a broad band between 2,221 and 3,184 points. The variance between these points was 963 points and was 493 points higher than that observed in the corresponding period of 2024 (470 points). In 2025, WIG20 rose by 45.3% y/y, or by 52.5% y/y if dividends are taken into account (WIG20 TR). The WIG broad market index gained 47.3% y/y. The situation of small and medium companies indexes was slightly better, sWIG80 and mWIG40 gained 25.4% and 33.6% y/y, respectively.
PZU’s share price
PZU shares in 2025 followed the major indexes of the Polish stock market, staying in a strong upward trend for most of the year. The decline in share price seen in the chart below at the end of Q3 2025 is the result of the dividend cut from the share price on September 24 (the dividend date was 25 September 2025). On a dividendadjusted chart, PZU’s stock price remained in strong correlation with the major indices of the Polish stock market.
At the last session in 2025, PZU shares were valued at PLN 66.7, an increase of 45.6% y/y (excluding adjustment for dividends paid per share – PLN 4.47). After adjusting the share price for dividends, the total return on PZU shares was 57.2% in 2025, 4.7 p.p. above the WIG20 TR income index. The highest closing price level was PLN 67.92 (19 December 2025).
Capitalization
The stock market value (capitalization) of PZU at the end of 2025 was PLN 57.6 billion (up 45.6% y/y, excluding dividend), placing it 3rd (up 1 position y/y) in terms of market price among Polish companies listed on the WSE. PZU’s share in WSE’s total trading volume was 5.5% (7th place – no change y/y).
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theoretical price at the last session of the year (PLN) | 64.93 | 66.94 | 81.19 | 84.10 | 109.47 |
| Theoretical capitalization at the end of the period (PLN million) | 56 072 | 57 808 | 70 113 | 72 626 | 94,533 |
| PZU’s shares* | 2021 | 2022** | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C/WK (P/BV) Market share price / book value per share |
1.4x | 1.2x | 1.4x | 1.2x | 1.6x |
| WKNA (PLN) BVPS (PLN) Book value per share |
25.6 | 30.3 | 34.8 | 37.2 | 41.1 |
| C/Z (P/E) Market share price / net return per share |
9.2x | 8.1x | 7.1x | 7.4 | 8.6x |
| ZNA (PLN) EPS (PLN) Net profit (loss) / number of shares |
3.9 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 7.8 |
** data – restatement of comparative data resulting from the application of IFRS 17
| PZU’s shares-related statistics | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximum price (PLN) | 41.65 | 37.82 | 48.90 | 55.50 | 67.92 |
| Minimum price (PLN) | 29.27 | 23.16 | 31.63 | 39.15 | 45.60 |
| Theoretical price at the last session of the year (PLN) | 35.35 | 35.42 | 47.27 | 45.84 | 66.74 |
| Average price per session (PLN) | 35.86 | 30.97 | 40.13 | 47.14 | 58.62 |
| Turnover value (PLN million) | 18,565 | 14,645 | 17,692 | 20,945 | 25,980 |
| Turnover (items) | 517,939 229 | 472,866 103 | 436,702 363 | 447,904 241 | 447,150 041 |
Bank Pekao and Alior Bank share prices
Context in the banking sector
In 2025, the WIG-banks index recorded an increase of 55.3% y/y, beating the WIG20 index by 10 pp. The correlation between the WIG Banks index and the WIG20 index was 90% (without y/y changes). The beta coefficient (in relation to WIG20) increased by 0.17, to 1.28. The growth of the WIG-Banks index is largely the result of the continued strong performance of banks at the net profit level, achieved in an environment of high interest rates.
Bank Pekao and Alior Bank
At the end of 2025, the Alior Bank share price was PLN 110.45, i.e., it went up by 41.4%* since the beginning of the year. In 2025, the dividend per share paid by Alior Bank was PLN 9.19.
In that same period, the Pekao Bank share price increased by 64.7%* to PLN 205.1 per share. In 2025, the dividend per share paid by Bank Pekao was PLN 18.36.
